All business opportunities are good to take

With the acceleration of global trade, airlines have been forced to spill over their historical influence zones into more broad and fluid networks covering all continents. Companies were not greater in response to this need. Because, unlike insurance, of the pharmacy or the automobile, the protectionism and nationalism of the air, persistent despite deregulation, continue to prevent or complicate the mergers and acquisitions. The Alitalia drama has been a recent illustration.

Alliances are thus born to resolve the contradiction between globalisation and nationalism. A former President of Air France, Bernard Attali, called these alliances of "engagement prior to the marriage". In fact, "alliances have been established because companies could not merge." "It had to be continuity of intercontinental services agreements," confirms Didier Brechemier, consultant specialized in the firm Roland Berger.

After a few attempts ephemeral (Qualiflyer launched by Swissair and Wings launched by KLM Northwest), only three global alliances have survived and structured the air world landscape around networks covering the cities which generate the most traffic Affairs. 50 Companies will soon be members of one of these alliances that meet 70 of the international passenger market.

In parallel to these alliances (engagement), the phenomenon of consolidation (marriages) has advanced much slower. Started within continents, it is very detailed in the United States, where the last major union is that of Delta and Northwest. In Europe, before jump started around three actors, first within the great Europe he began autour de trois autour de trois first intérieur des des, de amorcé, de amorcé, de amorcé de de amorcé amorcé first Thus, in the wake of the Air France-KLM approximation, now expanded to Alitalia, Lufthansa has convolé with Swiss and Brussels Airline then Austrian and British Airways was tight in her arms Iberia.

But, beyond, Transcontinental marriages remain difficult or impossible. The recent failure of the union of British Airways with Qantas has shown. Because there is regulatory locks: an alien may not take more than 25 of the capital of a U.S. company or a non-européen more than half of the capital of a European company. This issue, in the background of the "open skies" Europe - US negotiations, could be resolved in a second step in 2010 or 2011. But "the Obama administration is not prepared to evolve this rule", think the pattern of an American company.

An unfinished building

"Consolidation is therefore incomplete." "It remains 250 major companies in the world," said Didier Brechemier, which indicates that the largest five concentrated about 40 of the market, or less than (56 for 5 builders) automobile, oil and gas (88) or aircraft (92) engines. "The future concentration in the air should move towards the 60 ", he says. It seems all the more necessary that he "rest 15-20 of air overcapacity permanent in the world, which is true in the gap between aircraft order books and traffic forecasts.

While hypothetical mega-mergers, alliances occupy the land, even if their operation runs up against limits. For Jean-Louis Barroux, President of the World Air Forum, "their officials talk of synergies and of what they earn, but operating costs are important, and I have doubts about the financial interest which must be a money game zero."

In fact, alliances are beneficial for their members in terms of passengers and turnover, but operational synergies remain low because they are facing problems of governance, ownerships and different political choices", summarizes a specialist. For Olivier Fainsilber, consultant air firm Oliver Wyman, "suffer the same brake efficiency than the G5, G7 and G20 governance international crisis." The question is: can we really do and how

"Marital relations".

Burdensome is so delicate that the impact of the crisis is uncertain. On the one hand, alliances seem more necessary because "prices will return to the importance for the market"corporate"", said Olivier Fainsilber. What confirms Dominique Patry of Air France that, in a complicated situation, it is more necessary than ever to remain markets with the "code sharing", even if it must reduce the number of flights. "The crisis can only strengthen alliances," he said.

On the other hand, these can be undermined by members in financial difficulty. This can speed buy-backs in or above the alliances because market prices will become interesting, think an observer. Alitalia (Oneworld) could be taken over by Lufthansa (Star) or vice versa, Austrian by Air France. In addition, despite the costs of the divorce, some companies are past Alliance to another as Mexicana, from Star to Oneworld. Continental will leave SkyTeam to Star.

These threats are lined with what one observer called "marital relations", i.e. "code sharing" agreements spot on the margins of the alliance of belonging: United (Star Alliance) is thus linked to Aer Lingus (Oneworld), Air France (SkyTeam) to Qantas (Oneworld) and JAL (Oneworld) or even American Airlines (Oneworld) to Brussels Airlines (Star)... All business opportunities are good to take. These infidelity "blur the message", according to Olivier Fainsilber: "they are symptomatic of a crisis situation: when the alliance is not enough, it seeks outside."

The limit of the alliances is more fundamental for Didier Brechemier: "They went to the limit of what they could do." If they had been more effective, the financial margins of their members would have been better. The model does not meet the issues of the air transport of tomorrow and the next step will be the consolidation. "It is already begun there where it is possible, by continents or areas of influence, enhanced by the alliances that prepare the ground. Because natural relates to the acquisition of companies in the orbit of the heads of alliance as what is happening around Lufthansa, Air France and British Airways in Europe.

"Alliances are not inconsistent with the consolidation, which is also facilitated by the fact of belonging to a same alliance", admits Dominique Patry of Air France. "But we can't imagine that it will continue that three large companies in the world." The consolidation will continue especially in Europe, where many companies are for sale. "However, according to him, even if the regulatory lock jumped, mergers between companies American and European" currently have no economic sense, being too different market conditions and companies having more to do with the money they have. " What makes say to Jacques Alonso that his company, American Airlines, saw not today "interest to enter the capital of other companies or to buy because there is not need to be married for love."