It has withdrawn all that could be the Bank

"My tape, my cassette"! It plays "The miser" of Molière on all financial markets in the world at this time. And not only in banks. There is also as Fort Chabrol atmosphere at the head of the business. "It has withdrawn all that could be the Bank." "The aim now is to live in autarky as long as possible", says a great pattern. In an economy as open as today ', where money was travelling at the speed of light, the contrast is striking. Of course, this sudden glaciation of global finance will be an end, but in what state will be the companies at the time of the thaw

Everything will depend on the duration of this new ice age. More than a month, the consequences can be disastrous. Most companies have taken the habit of easy money. Large themselves are so accustomed to ensure their purposes of months in getting in the short term. Others pass through the Bank loan. But when banks close the tap and there was more buyer for bonds or commercial paper, the risk grows to see bankruptcies due to the lack of liquidity. Companies thus learn to live on their reserves. "Cash is king", said to be in France Telecom after the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2002, then the company was covered in debts. Today, the watchword is everywhere.

Beyond that, the crisis will changes in the behaviour of firms. The clues point already. First, the decline in the finance sector in the broad sense (banks, funds, institutions...). In a study (1), the Economist Thomas Philippon shows that the weight of this activity in the United States varies considerably. On the eve of the crash of 1929, she represented 6 of the gross domestic product (GDP) before collapsing. In 1950, it was less than 4. She rebounded from the 1980s for peaking at more than 8 in 2006. With the current avalanche of bailouts, bankruptcies and restructuring plans, the size of the financial sector will soon be reduced. Certainly not to the 3 of the post-war, except widespread conflagration, but at around 6 of GDP, now considers Thomas Philippon.

What is interesting is the reason why finance starts to swell. Paradoxically, this is not linked to economic growth, excellent post-war, but at the request of the companies. In the 1980s, in full slow growth, a new generation of very promising but not yet profitable, especially active companies in the computing, electronics and Internet, were thirsty capital. They need a dynamic financial market to accompany their unbridled growth and fund infrastructure to build around. In other words, the swelling of finance comes from the industrial revolutions that cause. 1929 And was worn by revolution (started in 1908 with the Ford T) automotive, transportation and electricity. This was the case with the age of steam and the train, in the 19th century. Then with the boom of the iron and steel and heavy industry at the end of the 19th century, which ended by the crashes in repetition of 1893, 1903 and 1907. Historian Carlota Perez, who teaches in the University of Cambridge, shows that these revolutions regularly lead to financial crashes over-investment and deployed during the phase of technological frenzy (2) financial innovation. Contemplate the massive share buyback programs undertaken in recent years by the companies 40 billion nothing that Microsoft , we understand that their resources now exceed their needs because they no longer know what to do with their money.

In fact, it is as if the financial sphere adapted brutally to this change in demand, as these accumulated underground stress that a release in an earthquake. The first event took place in 2000-2001. We are currently experiencing its most deadly reply.

This narrowing of the financial sphere due to a fall in demand of companies should lead to profound strategic changes in the business. One entered maturity, already began ten years with the consolidation of the players in each sector, and a priority given to the generation of an abundant cash to finance development without too much to appeal to the outside. In a point of view published in "Les echos" last week, Arnaud Lagardere said that groups such as hers were better armed to the crisis through their long term strategy of prudent diversification and wealth management. The troubled times ahead should benefit this type of business (Bouygues is another prototype), less fast in small wind but better equipped for the heavy weather. To the detriment of the younger and smaller. "Our bankers have warned us, they will not have much to us in the next two years," recognizes the founder of an SME listed, which bought eight companies in 18 months and increases its turnover by 40 per year. It also, if it wants to survive, must moderate its ambitions to reduce its risk profile.

But the story does not stop there. If large units will benefit from the small boats during a few years, new big bangs are pregnant. The 21st century will be largely provided in failures. It would be desirable for humanity that the next Vienna energy, taking into account the impasses in which we are. Then, finance find momentum. When It is even more difficult to predict as the financial crises.