According to him the euro could quickly reach 1

The single currency seems far more influenced by us monetary policy by the European debt paper, lately: yesterday, at the height of the meeting, the euro jumped 2.36, to 1,3438 dollar, its highest level for five months, on the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. By contrast, last week, the serious concerns about the Ireland and the Portugal had did not topple.

The communiqué issued by the Fed Tuesday evening had a strong impact on the foreign exchange market. The Central Bank has explicitly prepared the ground to new measures to liberalize. For market participants, it became clear that it will boost the asset purchase program launched last year in financial crisis. This device of "quantitative easing" assumes that the Fed increases the size of its balance sheet, instead of simply reinvest it touch on the mortgage at maturity. Through this, she is pursuing a policy against the greenback. It also had a 0.67 drop yesterday with an effective exchange rate of 79.9 (i.e. against a basket of currencies).

The gap is widening between the monetary policies of both sides of the Atlantic. The Fed is preparing to restart the device of crisis, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is gradually seeking out. On the other hand, the market does not to increase the rate in the United States next year - thesis which also was certified by the evocation of a risk of deflation by the Federal Reserve Tuesday-, while it is considering a possible turn of screw in Europe in mid-2011. "In fact, the Fed and the ECB differ on the question of inflation: in September, the Institute of issue of the euro area has shown that he was concerned an inflationary risk, while the Federal Reserve considers as too low inflation with its mandate of price stability", summarizes Chris Turner at ING. According to him, the euro could quickly reach 1.35 dollar, as emissions of debt of the peripheral States, of the Ireland and Portugal, are well past.

"If the Fed announcements have a definite impact on the currency market, the G4 non-dollar currencies have a limited upward potential", qualifies the team of Barclays Capital. The euro may be overtaken by the demons of European sovereign debt, especially if a countries, like the Spain, is showing signs of weakness.

Pressure on the Bank of the Japan

The yen, it may be devalued by the Bank of the Japan. Also, the "Financial Times" reported remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan, declaring that his country was ready to again intervene to stem the outbreak of the currency. It recently received one above more than fifteen years against the greenback. Last week, it rose to 83 against the dollar, just until the authorities are buying $ 20 billion on the market, causing a 3 fall in the yen. Yesterday, it took 1.11 (84,43), on the meeting of the Fed. In opening the door to a revival of the quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve increases pressure on the Bank of the Japan.

The pound sterling is subject to the same treatment as the dollar, since the Bank of England adopted a posture fairly similar to that of the Fed: the minutes of the September meeting, unveiled yesterday, show that the British monetary authorities to think about new stimulus, such as the purchase of assets. Yesterday, the book however took 0.62, to 1,5642 dollar. In the end, the currencies which should more than take advantage of a resumption of the "quantitative easing" in the United States should be related to raw materials.