1. Who speculated
The issue feeds all the fantasies. Is it an anglo-saxon plot against the euro area Of an attack by a cartel of evil players Paulson, Brevan Howard Fund and the bank Goldman Sachs have all three suspected early this year. Nothing could be shown. What we know, is that "hedge funds" and (via including their own-account trading activities) banks engage in speculation, as opposed to final investors, who buy and retain the assets in the portfolio. In the case of the Greek crisis, it has been implicated the use of CDS (credit default swap") which serve as a contract of insurance on debt, and short selling of Greek State loans. The authorities have launched investigations - the German secret services have even been on at the time, according to the "Financial Times" - but none resulted. The harmful role of the CDS is still not proven, poses a serious challenge to the leaders. "For the first time in history, the public authorities are facing attacks against States, without any information", deplored yesterday Jean-Pierre Jouyet, the President of the authority of des marchés financiers (AMF), referring to the problems posed by the OTC derivatives markets. The threat of regulation have, it seems, chastened speculative movements, but the fear is widespread and all categories of investors are now forced to protect themselves, exacerbating the trend.

The issue feeds all the fantasies. Is it an anglo-saxon plot against the euro area Of an attack by a cartel of evil players Paulson, Brevan Howard Fund and the bank Goldman Sachs have all three suspected early this year. Nothing could be shown. What we know, is that "hedge funds" and (via including their own-account trading activities) banks engage in speculation, as opposed to final investors, who buy and retain the assets in the portfolio. In the case of the Greek crisis, it has been implicated the use of CDS (credit default swap") which serve as a contract of insurance on debt, and short selling of Greek State loans. The authorities have launched investigations - the German secret services have even been on at the time, according to the "Financial Times" - but none resulted. The harmful role of the CDS is still not proven, poses a serious challenge to the leaders. "For the first time in history, the public authorities are facing attacks against States, without any information", deplored yesterday Jean-Pierre Jouyet, the President of the authority of des marchés financiers (AMF), referring to the problems posed by the OTC derivatives markets. The threat of regulation have, it seems, chastened speculative movements, but the fear is widespread and all categories of investors are now forced to protect themselves, exacerbating the trend.
2 Will Spanish debt have difficulty finding licensee Spanish Treasury who met, so far, no problems in its calls to the markets, with a request every time much more important than the offer, is take the field today with a show of good to five years for an amount of 2 to 3 billion euros. The last operation of this type was concluded on 2.84 yield. But with the recent tensions, the rate could rise to 3. Since yesterday, the differential of the proper Spanish ten years with the German "Bund" reached one more top ten years by touching the bar of 130 points. The Spanish Government plans to lift this year on the market for EUR 200 billion. Currently representing 54.3 of its gross domestic product, the debt ratio should rise by 63 this year to 75 in 2013, according to Government forecasts. Standard & Poor's, which has degraded, last week, the notes of the Spain of AA to AA with perspective negative, sees it represent 85 of GDP on the same date.
Spanish Treasury who met, so far, no problems in its calls to the markets, with a request every time much more important than the offer, is take the field today with a show of good to five years for an amount of 2 to 3 billion euros. The last operation of this type was concluded on 2.84 yield. But with the recent tensions, the rate could rise to 3. Since yesterday, the differential of the proper Spanish ten years with the German "Bund" reached one more top ten years by touching the bar of 130 points. The Spanish Government plans to lift this year on the market for EUR 200 billion. Currently representing 54.3 of its gross domestic product, the debt ratio should rise by 63 this year to 75 in 2013, according to Government forecasts. Standard & Poor's, which has degraded, last week, the notes of the Spain of AA to AA with perspective negative, sees it represent 85 of GDP on the same date.
3 Have. credit rating agencies aggravated the crisis
In a certain way, Yes. The criticism is focused on the conditions for the degradation of the notes of the Greece, the Spain and the Portugal. Fifteen minutes from the close of European markets, it is a "shoot - to crime", as referred it to Christine Lagarde. More surprising was the extent of degradation for the Greece's Standard & Poor, last Tuesday, three notches in the scale of notes. Until the push in the category of the "junk bonds" ("junk bonds"). But some financial institutions investment rules impose on their managers not to invest in good quality titles, forcing them to sell these securities. The price collapse. Yields tend. The distrust of the country moved. Operators are puzzled by the exposure of banks to the degraded country debt. Shares fall. Currently, the situation is confused and poor visibility, markets sur-réagissent to any degradation of a note by a rating agency. However, they cannot be taken to the free. Agencies announce they could degrade any particular issuer.
In a certain way, Yes. The criticism is focused on the conditions for the degradation of the notes of the Greece, the Spain and the Portugal. Fifteen minutes from the close of European markets, it is a "shoot - to crime", as referred it to Christine Lagarde. More surprising was the extent of degradation for the
Greece's Standard & Poor, last Tuesday, three notches in the scale of notes. Until the push in the category of the "junk bonds" ("junk bonds"). But some financial institutions investment rules impose on their managers not to invest in good quality titles, forcing them to sell these securities. The price collapse. Yields tend. The distrust of the country moved. Operators are puzzled by the exposure of banks to the degraded country debt. Shares fall. Currently, the situation is confused and poor visibility, markets sur-réagissent to any degradation of a note by a rating agency. However, they cannot be taken to the free. Agencies announce they could degrade any particular issuer.4. Is there a risk of systemic banking crisis
Any default in payment of the Greece "could lead to a banking crisis", it is alarmed yesterday the Finnish Minister of finance, who speaks from experience, updating the fear of a scenario disaster at Lehman Brothers: a default in the euro area would trigger a banking crisis... While the States are indebted to massively raise their banks after the financial crisis of 2008. French and German banks banks are in any case most engaged in Greece: the exposure of banks in France, both to the private public sector, is estimated at 75.2 billion, and relative to their counterparts in German to $ 45 billion, the Bank for International Settlements (bis). The risk was well understood, the banks of the two countries being committed Tuesday not to withdraw from the Greek market.
Any default in payment of the Greece "could lead to a banking crisis", it is alarmed yesterday the Finnish Minister of finance, who speaks from experience, updating the fear of a scenario disaster at Lehman Brothers: a default in the euro area would trigger a banking crisis... While the States are indebted to massively raise their banks after the financial crisis of 2008. French and German banks banks are in any case most engaged in Greece: the exposure of banks in France, both to the private public sector, is estimated at 75.2 billion, and relative to their counterparts in German to $ 45 billion, the Bank for International Settlements (bis). The risk was well understood, the banks of the two countries being committed Tuesday not to withdraw from the Greek market.
5 Is. the euro area threatened a risk of collapse The Cassandras are to announce the end of the euro, in the turmoil of the European debt crisis in a thrill. To the Nobel Prize in economics, Joseph Stiglitz, who predicted the death of the single currency if Europe does not end its "basic institutional problems. The assumption today is pure fiction, not because no State that shares has interest. But the severity of the crisis that gripped Europe in recent months forced to consider the worst case scenario. If the Greek austerity plan fails, markets refuse to finance the debt, if its European partners continue to provide assistance, then Athens will not be another choice than to default on its debt and the restructuring or the reschedule. Partners can then that suffer this situation. No one can force the Greece to get out of the euro area. It may decide to recover monetary sovereignty to devalue and attempt to regain competitiveness.
The Cassandras are to announce the end of the euro, in the turmoil of the European debt crisis in a thrill. To the Nobel Prize in economics, Joseph Stiglitz, who predicted the death of the single currency if Europe does not end its "basic institutional problems. The assumption today is pure fiction, not because no State that shares has interest. But the severity of the crisis that gripped Europe in recent months forced to consider the worst case scenario. If the Greek austerity plan fails, markets refuse to finance the debt, if its European partners continue to provide assistance, then Athens will not be another choice than to default on its debt and the restructuring or the reschedule. Partners can then that suffer this situation. No one can force the Greece to get out of the euro area. It may decide to recover monetary sovereignty to devalue and attempt to regain competitiveness.
6 Never again
The Greek crisis has revealed to light all the faults of the euro area: the disparity in economies that make up, the total lack of discipline among its member countries in terms of the management of public and private finance and the inability of Governments and the Commission to enforce the rules of the Treaty of Maastricht and the stability pact. The lessons of this failure are clear: the survival of the euro area through a complete rules of "living together" redesign: economic governance should be a vain word but a reality based on strict budgetary discipline, but also on an assumed solidarity between States through a system of borrowing Europeans or line of credit available in case of difficulty of a Member State. The euro area must completely rebuild the credibility of its management of public finances.
The Greek crisis has revealed to light all the faults of the euro area: the disparity in economies that make up, the total lack of discipline among its member countries in terms of the management of public and private finance and the inability of Governments and the Commission to enforce the rules of the Treaty of Maastricht and the stability pact. The lessons of this failure are clear: the survival of the euro area through a complete rules of "living together" redesign: economic governance should be a vain word but a reality based on strict budgetary discipline, but also on an assumed solidarity between States through a system of borrowing Europeans or line of credit available in case of difficulty of a Member State. The euro area must completely rebuild the credibility of its management of public finances.